04/01/2024
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK: For Tuesday April 2nd, 2024.
THIS IS NOT AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE!!!!!!! IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY!
The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma has issued a MODERATE RISK for storms on Tuesday.
It is EXTREMELY important that you are weather aware and have SEVERAL ways to receive watches and warnings.
The potential for damaging wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes (EF2+) are all on the table.
We will have an initial wave of rain and thunderstorms that will move in Tuesday Morning during the overnight hours of Monday. But, storm redevelopment is expected Tuesday Afternoon. This is when the main threat will take shape for the Ohio Valley.
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Here is a bit of the text from the Storm Prediction Center themselves.
Widespread thunderstorms -- including some degree of all-hazards severe risk -- will likely be spreading rapidly eastward across the Ohio Valley area at the start of the period. This convection should reach the central Appalachians by late morning/midday, but -- though potentially having some impact on destabilization potential across the MDT and ENH risk areas -- should largely shift far enough east to allow warm-sector destabilization to commence.
As the surface low deepens and crosses Illinois and eventually moves into Indiana, and the cold front advances across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys, storm redevelopment is expected to occur during the afternoon. While evolution/storm mode remains somewhat difficult to discern -- in part due to earlier storms -- some mix of cellular and cluster/linear mode is expected to evolve. Given the ample destabilization expected in combination with very strong/veering deep-layer flow, all-hazards severe potential is evident, including very large hail, strong/damaging winds, and several significant tornadoes.
The greatest risk, which will include potential for a couple of
intense/long-track tornadoes, should begin across Indiana, and the spread across Ohio through the afternoon and evening, potentially reaching as far east as western portions of West Virginia and far western Pennsylvania into the evening. Eastward advance of the risk into central Pennsylvania will likely remain limited, but otherwise threat may spread into western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas late.
2:50PM, 4/1/2024