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Storm Chaser Henry Conoly, Telford, PA (2026)

03/13/2026

⚠️ INITIAL WEATHER CALL — Monday, March 16 ⚠️

📌 NOTE: This is an early, initial call based on newly published guidance from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued this afternoon, Friday March 13th. This outlook is still 3 days out and details WILL change as we get closer. We will issue updated posts as confidence improves — do not make major decisions based on this post alone. Check back for updates.

— — —

With that said, Team Meso is tracking a potentially significant severe weather setup for Southeast Pennsylvania and the broader Mid-Atlantic region for Monday into Monday night, and we want to make sure our community has early awareness.

The SPC's freshly issued Day 4 outlook places our area within a 15% severe weather probability, with a 30% significant severe weather zone just to our south covering much of the Mid-Atlantic corridor. This is a setup we are watching closely.

🌩️ POTENTIAL THREATS FOR SE PENNSYLVANIA (including Souderton area)
• Widespread damaging winds — PRIMARY THREAT
• Tornadoes (embedded in line storms) — ELEVATED RISK
• Tornadoes (isolated supercells) — POSSIBLE
• Large hail — LOW

🕐 PRELIMINARY TIMING (all times EST)
➤ Morning–Early Afternoon: Warm, moist air surges northward ahead of an approaching cold front. Conditions begin to destabilize through the day.
➤ 1PM–5PM: Storms may fire well to our south across the Carolinas and Virginia. We'll be watching for any northward trend.
➤ 5PM–10PM ⚠️ PEAK WINDOW FOR SE PA: A line of storms associated with the cold front is expected to sweep through the region. Damaging winds and embedded tornadoes within the line are the primary concerns during this timeframe.
➤ After 10PM: Conditions improve rapidly behind the frontal passage.

📌 WHAT YOU SHOULD DO RIGHT NOW
✔️ Be aware that a severe weather event is possible Monday evening
✔️ Have a plan and know your safe shelter location
✔️ Follow this page and Storm Chaser Henry Conoly for ongoing updates as Monday approaches
✔️ Follow your local NWS office for official watches and warnings when the time comes

Again — this is a preliminary call based on new SPC data published today. The forecast will be refined significantly over the next 72 hours. We will keep you updated every step of the way.

Stay weather aware, SE PA. 🌪️

—
Team Meso | Est. 2012

07/25/2025

🌡️⚠️ FRIDAY WEATHER ALERT – JULY 25, 2025
📍 Eastern Pennsylvania
🕒 Storm Threat: 3 PM – 9 PM
🟥 Extreme Heat Warning / Heat Advisory in effect: 10 AM – 9 PM

Tomorrow will be dangerously hot and potentially stormy across the region. Here's what you need to know:
☀️ Heat Risk:

• Highs in the mid to upper 90s
• Heat Index values as high as 103–108°F
• Risk of heat exhaustion or heat stroke with prolonged outdoor exposure
• Limit outdoor activity, stay hydrated, and check on vulnerable people & pets
⛈️ Severe Storm Threat:

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.

🕒 Storm Window: 3 PM – 9 PM

• 🌬️ Damaging wind gusts (50–70 mph)
• ⚡ Frequent lightning
• 🌧️ Localized flash flooding from brief downpours (1–2″/hr possible)
• 🌪️ Isolated tornado threat: low, but not zero in strong cells

Storms will be scattered—not everyone will get hit—but those that form could be strong.

✅ What to Do:

• Hydrate early, avoid strenuous activity midday
• Have multiple ways to receive weather alerts
• If storms approach, seek shelter immediately—do not wait
• Never drive through flooded roads

🔁 Please share this with friends and family—between the heat and storms, it’s a day to stay alert and be prepared.

—

07/16/2025

🌧️ TUESDAY WEATHER UPDATE – JULY 15
📍 Eastern Pennsylvania | 🕒 2 PM – Midnight
🟠 Flash Flood Watch continues through 2 AM Wednesday

⚠️ Primary Threats—Flash Flooding & Heavy Rain

A Flood Watch remains in effect from 2 PM today through early Wednesday, covering much of eastern PA.

NOAA/NWS Mount Holly forecasts slow-moving storms capable of producing 3–5″ of rain and flash flooding in urban areas, creeks, and poor drainage zones.

WPC identifies a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall, showing abundant moisture with PWAT near 2.5″—ideal conditions for heavy downpours.

⛈️ Storm Details & Impacts

When: Storms expected to form after 2 PM, peaking 3–9 PM, potentially lingering through midnight.

Thunderstorm Coverage: Scattered but could produce intense, slow-moving downpours, especially in the Lehigh Valley, Philadelphia, Montgomery, Bucks, and Chester counties.

Rainfall Intensity: Expect periodic bursts of 1–2″ per hour, accumulating 3–5″ in hotspot areas.

Additional Hazards:

⚡ Frequent Lightning

💨 Isolated strong wind gusts (up to ~50 mph)

🕒 Timeline

2–5 PM: Storms develop

5–9 PM: Peak rainfall and flash flood threat

After 9 PM: Storms gradually push east; flooding continues into early morning

🚨 What You Should Do

1. Avoid flood-prone roads and areas

2. Never drive through standing or moving water

3. Charge your phone and stay tuned for flash flood alerts

4. Prepare for sudden water rise if you live near creeks or in low-lying zones

🔁 Please share this post—today’s storms may not look dramatic, but the flooding risk is serious and fast-developing.

07/14/2025

🚨 MONDAY WEATHER ALERT – JULY 14
📍 Eastern & Southeastern Pennsylvania | 🕒 2 PM – 10 PM
🟠 Flash Flood Watch in Effect

Today brings a serious risk of flash flooding across the region, especially from Reading and Allentown to Philadelphia and Trenton. While the tornado and wind threat is low, tropical moisture and slow-moving storms will create ideal conditions for dangerous localized flooding.

---

🌧️ What to Expect:

✅ Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
✅ Rainfall rates may exceed 2 inches per hour
✅ Localized 3–5 inch totals possible
✅ Greatest flooding threat in the Moderate Risk zone — including Reading, Philly, and Wilmington
✅ Isolated strong wind gusts and frequent lightning possible

📊 Based on NOAA and NWS Mount Holly, this is one of the most flood-prone setups of the summer so far, with a deep tropical air mass (PWAT > 2.5") and very weak upper-level steering flow.

---

⚠️ How This Differs from Last Week:

Last week brought fast-moving storms and tornado warnings. Today’s setup is slower, wetter, and potentially more dangerous for low-lying areas and cities. These storms could stall and dump rain for hours, increasing the risk of basement flooding, stranded vehicles, and water rescues.

---

🕒 Storm Timeline:

• 2–5 PM: Initial storm development
• 5–8 PM: Peak flooding risk – strongest storms
• 8–10 PM: Activity shifts east

---

🚨 What You Should Do:

• Never drive through flooded roads — just 6 inches of water can stall a vehicle
• Secure basement valuables and check drains
• Charge devices in case of power flickers
• Keep weather alerts turned on and follow updates from trusted sources

—

07/09/2025

⚠️ UPDATED FINAL CALL – SEVERE WEATHER TODAY (WED JUL 9) ⚠️
📍 Central & Southeastern Pennsylvania | 🕒 2 PM – 11 PM

The atmosphere has juiced up this morning — PWAT values topping 2.3–2.4" (near daily records) and a moisture-laden boundary sliding east. Storms already firing west of I-81 will intensify and race toward the I-95 corridor this afternoon.

Key Points

SPC Slight Risk (Level 2/5) still in place – 15 % wind / 2 % tornado.

WPC upgrades to a MODERATE flash-flood risk from Baltimore → Philly → coastal NJ.

PWAT near record levels, 1-h Flash-Flood Guidance only 0.75-1" in many counties.

Damaging winds 55-70 + mph & isolated tornadoes possible in bowing segments.

Timing (approx.)

Window Main Areas Threat Focus

2–4 PM Chambersburg · Harrisburg · York Discrete cells, heavy rain bursts
4–6 PM Lancaster · Reading · Allentown Line segments, wind bursts, flooding
6–9 PM Philly metro & suburbs Bowing QLCS, flash-flood corridors, brief spin-ups
9–11 PM NJ coast Redevelopment on outflow

Safety Reminders

✅ Flood Watch 5 PM – 2 AM – never drive through water
✅ Have multiple alert methods (Wireless, NOAA, local TV)
✅ Secure outdoor items; be ready to shelter quickly
✅ Report severe wx & flooding to NWS when safe

Share to anyone in the path — rapid changes are likely.

07/09/2025

⚠️ SEVERE WEATHER ALERT FOR PENNSYLVANIA – WEDNESDAY, JULY 9 ⚠️
📍 Central & Southeastern PA | 🕒 2 PM – 9 PM

As a storm chaser who follows these systems closely, I want to raise the alarm about a serious threat for damaging thunderstorms this Wednesday afternoon and evening across much of Pennsylvania — especially along the I-81 to I-95 corridors.

📊 What the Data Shows:
🔹 The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Level 2/5 – SLIGHT RISK for Southeast Pennsylvania, which includes a:
• 15% risk for severe wind
• 2% risk for tornadoes

🔹 HRRR Future Radar guidance shows storm development beginning by 2–3 PM near Gettysburg/Harrisburg, then racing northeast toward Reading, Allentown, and Philadelphia by 5–8 PM.

🔹 Forecast instability (MLCAPE) exceeds 2500 J/kg, with Precipitable Water (PWAT) values near 2 inches, signaling a ripe environment for heavy rainfall and powerful downdrafts.

🔹 0–6 km shear values of 30–35 knots will help support organized multicell clusters or a broken squall line (QLCS) — a setup that has produced damaging wind events in past July setups.

🔹 NWS and SPC briefings note localized rainfall rates of 1.5–2.0 inches per hour, raising concern for flash flooding, especially in urban or poor drainage areas.

🌪️ Main Hazards:
• Damaging wind gusts of 55–70+ mph
• Localized flash flooding
• Dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning
• Isolated tornado risk, especially near surface boundaries in SE PA and along the MD border

🧭 Timing by Region:

2–4 PM: Storms develop near Chambersburg, Harrisburg, York

4–6 PM: Storms intensify as they move into Reading, Lancaster, Allentown

6–9 PM: Strongest storms likely across the Philly metro and surrounding suburbs

After 9 PM: System pushes into NJ, with possible redevelopment along the outflow boundary

📣 Public Safety Message:
✅ Secure loose outdoor items Tuesday night
✅ Make a plan if you work outdoors or commute Wednesday PM
✅ Enable Wireless Emergency Alerts and monitor NOAA Weather Radio
✅ Never drive through flooded roads — “Turn Around, Don’t Drown”
✅ Keep a charged phone and flashlight in case of power outages

📡 I’ll be chasing along the storm corridor and posting live updates throughout the day. These setups can escalate quickly — awareness and preparation will make all the difference.

🔁 Please share this with anyone in the storm’s path.

—

07/09/2025

🌪️ TORNADO WARNED STORM – SOUDERTON, PA | JULY 8, 2025
On Tuesday evening, a tornado-warned storm passed directly over Souderton, PA. I was in position as the system approached and captured its full evolution—from early instability to a dramatic shelf cloud and damaging straight-line winds.

Here's what happened—and why it matters.

⏱️ Timeline of Events:

~5:10 PM: Skies became turbulent. Low cloud bases and vertical growth indicated rising instability.

5:20 PM: The National Weather Service issued a Tornado Warning for central Montgomery County based on radar-indicated rotation.

~5:25–5:30 PM: A large, organized shelf cloud approached from the west—marking the leading edge of a powerful outflow boundary.

5:30–5:35 PM: The storm hit with blinding rain, powerful wind gusts, and rapid visibility loss. No tornado touched down, but the storm produced severe straight-line winds consistent with a microburst or bowing segment.

📸 Visual Observations:

The shelf cloud was textbook: layered, low, and fast-moving. These formations indicate cold air outflow colliding with warm surface air, often preceding strong winds.

As the gust front arrived, parking lot debris began to fly and trees were whipped by horizontal wind.

Within seconds, rain intensified to whiteout conditions, making travel and outdoor exposure extremely dangerous.

🎥 Videos below show:

The shelf cloud overtaking Souderton.

A violent burst of wind and rain with near-zero visibility.

Aftermath views showing flooding, blowing debris, and continued wind gusts.

📚 Educational Notes:

A Tornado Warning means rotation has been detected and a tornado is possible or imminent. In this case, radar showed a rotating mesocyclone embedded in the storm.

This storm likely produced downburst or straight-line wind damage—different from tornadoes, but equally dangerous.

Shelf clouds are often mistaken for tornadoes, but they are part of the storm’s gust front, not rotating funnels.

✅ Key Takeaways:

Take tornado warnings seriously, even if no tornado forms.

Straight-line winds from gust fronts or downbursts can exceed 60–70 mph, causing damage equal to weak tornadoes.

If you see a shelf cloud or feel a sudden wind shift—seek shelter immediately.

Always have multiple ways to receive warnings: weather apps, NOAA radio, text alerts.

🧭 Location: County Line Plaza, Souderton, PA
📅 Date: Tuesday, July 8, 2025
🌩️ Event: Tornado-warned severe thunderstorm with damaging winds and heavy rain
📷 Photos & video: All taken by me, from pre-storm buildup through core impact

Stay safe. Stay aware. Our atmosphere can change in minutes—and storms like this prove that you don’t need a tornado for a tornado warning to be dangerous.

04/01/2025

Nothing too crazy about todays storms as they went through Bucks and Montgomery counties.

I did get these cool shots of the leading edge of the storm.

04/15/2024

Chase 1 of the season

Storm Chaser Henry Conoly

03/13/2026

07/25/2025

07/16/2025

07/14/2025

07/09/2025

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04/01/2025

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