05/17/2026
β A highly favorable setup for severe thunderstorms is likely on Monday, with an upgrade to a Moderate Risk (Level 4 out of 5) for our eastern Kansas communities. Kansas City remains in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5), while surrounding areas in eastern Kansas and western and northwestern Missouri are in an Enhanced and Slight Risk (Levels 3 and 2 out of 5, respectively).
βοΈπ¨πͺοΈ Individual supercell thunderstorms are most likely within the Moderate Risk area Monday afternoon and evening. These storms will pose the greatest threat of large to giant hail (2β4"+), damaging wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes (EF2 or stronger). It remains unknown whether the cap will break farther east during this time period, closer to Kansas City and western and northwestern Missouri. If the cap does break Monday afternoon, supercell thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible. Given forecast trends with the upper-level storm system, dryline, and cold front, Iβm still leaning toward the most likely scenario for Kansas City being a severe squall line of thunderstorms developing after sunset and sweeping across the region into late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. This type of storm configuration would pose more of a damaging wind threat, with the potential for embedded tornadoes along the leading edge of the squall line.
π±π» Please check the forecast often beginning today through tomorrow night. Maintaining situational awareness during a time like this is crucial. Please also make sure you have multiple ways to receive weather alerts, such as the KMBC app, a NOAA Weather Radio, or Wireless Emergency Alerts on compatible smartphones.
π Bottom line: Thereβs a high ceiling for this event, and if thunderstorms realize their maximum potential, there will likely be reports of significant severe weather as outlined earlier in this post. Focus on staying informed by following sources you trust with a history of objective and reliable forecasts β I hope that includes the KMBC First Alert Weather team.
Posted Sunday morning, May 17, 2026. KMBC 9