WxSynopsis

04/27/2026

****URGENT!!! ALERT: VIOLENT TORNADO ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE FOR SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND LOCALITIES JUST EAST OF ST. LOUIS, MO****

The hodograph on this sounding is extremely concerning. A near-complete loop (which is seen on this sounding) indicates very strong directional and speed shear through the lowest several kilometers, with a huge amount of streamwise vorticity available for any storm that can stay discrete.

The parameters are just as alarming: MLCAPE over 3300 J/kg, LCL around 750 m, 0–1 km SRH over 430 m²/s², 0–3 km SRH over 530 m²/s², effective SRH over 500 m²/s², and STP values in the 8–11 range. That is violent-tornado parameter space, especially with the hazard output explicitly flagging PDS Tornado.
This is the type of profile where a mature supercell would have no trouble sustaining a deep, intense mesocyclone. The only real question is storm mode and whether storms remain isolated long enough to take advantage of it. If they do, this sounding supports long-track, significant to violent tornado potential.

04/27/2026

****URGENT!!! ALERT: CAPPING INVERSION NOW ERODING, EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT ON-GOING ACROSS EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO****

As evident on latest satellite imagery, capping inversion is eroding. In response, explosive development is occurring across eastern KS and western MO. All the ingredients and classic hallmarks we look for in regards to historic tornado outbreaks are now in place. Factoring in what I have been discussing in my previous posts, the VTP (Violent Tornado Parameter) is now nearly maxed with values of 13. This is an extremely dangerous high-end loaded gun environment for southern Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, northern Arkansas, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, western Kentucky, western Tennessee, and northern Mississippi.

04/27/2026

****ALERT: CLASSIC TEXTBOOK VIEW OF THE MID-LEVEL WATER V***R IMAGERY SHOWING THE EML PUNCHING INTO MO/AR****

When forecasting high-end tornado outbreaks, this is one of the signals we look for. Using water v***r imagery, we will occasionally look at the mid levels. What we are looking for is the EML (Elevated Mixed Layer) and its potency. In this case, these images are current satellite/infrared imagery. Notice that pocket of dry air (yellow streak) cutting out of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas that is pushing into Missouri and Arkansas. This means the capping inversion is beginning to rapidly erode. As the cap erodes, we should begin to see explosive development over the next 4 hours. Any supercells that can stay discrete and have adequate separation will pose a high-end threat for violent (EF4+) tornadoes.

04/27/2026

****ALERT: EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HIGH-END TORNADO ENVIRONMENT BEING OBSERVED IN SPRINGFIELD, MO****

**12Z SOUNDING DEPICTED “HIGH-END” POTENTIAL…18Z SOUNDING SHOWS THE HIGH-END ENVIRONMENT IS BEING REALIZED**

The 12Z to 18Z observed soundings from Springfield (SGF) show a clear and concerning ramp-up, where the environment didn’t just hold steady; it became more favorable. Thermodynamically, instability increased significantly, with SBCAPE rising from around 2400 J/kg to over 4000 J/kg while steep mid-level lapse rates tied to the elevated mixed layer remained firmly in place. Surface conditions improved as well, with a warmer, more moisture-rich boundary layer, allowing for stronger, more buoyant updrafts. This is a classic signal that the atmosphere has continued to destabilize efficiently rather than being hindered, transitioning from a “loaded gun” to an environment on the verge of realizing that potential.

Kinematically, while low-level shear and SRH eased slightly from the extreme values observed at 12Z, they remain more than sufficient for strong tornadoes, and the hodographs still display large, curved, “classic” structures supportive of persistent supercells. Deep-layer shear remains in the ~50+ kt range, maintaining storm organization and longevity. More importantly, the balance between CAPE and shear has improved, shifting from extreme shear + strong instability to extreme instability + still very strong shear. That balance is critical, as it supports more explosive updraft acceleration, stronger stretching of vorticity, and more robust, long-lived mesocyclones.

Overall, this evolution reflects an atmosphere that has fully matured into a high-end tornadic environment, with key limiting factors continuing to erode. The cap is weakening, instability is maximized, and shear remains favorable, meaning the environment is now primed for discrete supercells capable of long-lived mesocyclones. This is no longer just a setup with high-end potential; it is one where that potential is increasingly likely to be realized. If storms initiate cleanly and remain semi-isolated, the environment supports numerous long-track, significant tornadoes, with the enhanced instability raising the ceiling for strong to potentially violent tornadoes.

04/27/2026

****ALERT: LATEST HRRR SOUNDING FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS****

**HIGH-END ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VIOLENT TORNADOES IS NOW BEING OBSERVED**

(Sounding is from eastern Arkansas near Forrest City, southwest of Memphis)

This HRRR forecast sounding near the MO/AR/IL/MS region depicts a classic high-end severe weather environment characterized by a potent combination of instability and shear. MLCAPE values in the 3000–4000 J/kg range, steep mid-level lapse rates, and low LCL heights near ~700 m point to an atmosphere capable of supporting explosive updrafts with efficient low-level stretching. The presence of a well-established elevated mixed layer continues to reinforce these lapse rates while limiting early convection, allowing the warm sector to destabilize more effectively ahead of peak heating.

Kinematically, the profile is equally concerning, with strong low-level shear and storm-relative helicity exceeding 250 m²/s² in the 0–1 km layer and even higher through the effective inflow layer. The hodograph displays a large, curved, “sickle-like” structure with a favorable critical angle near 60°, indicative of an environment highly supportive of persistent, rotating supercells. Deep-layer shear approaching 50 kt further enhances storm organization and longevity, while composite parameters such as STP near 5 and Supercell Composite above 15 reinforce the potential for significant tornadoes. The PDS TOR signal adds another layer of concern, highlighting the environment’s alignment with past significant tornado setups.

Taken together, this sounding supports the development of discrete, long-lived supercells capable of producing multiple tornadoes, some of which could be strong to potentially violent if storms remain isolated. The overall parameter space aligns closely with environments seen in past high-end outbreaks, particularly when combined with ongoing mesoscale trends such as surface wind backing and increasing boundary layer recovery. While storm mode will ultimately determine the extent of the threat, this profile clearly supports numerous long-track tornadoes, consistent with SPC messaging, with the potential for higher-end impacts where localized enhancements are maximized.

04/27/2026

****ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS****

First image shows the low pressure system currently in Iowa. The track of the low pressure has been more to the south. Meaning, it has not tracked north like some models showed. In addition, the low pressure is smaller and more compact. This will further increase the backing of the winds across the triple point area in MO and IL.

Next image is the HRRR and RTMA analysis of how the mid levels (700mb) across southern MO, western KY, western TN, and AR are starting to dry out. This is significant because this drying of the mid levels is occurring out ahead of the approaching EML (Elevated Mixed Layer). The extensive drying and potent EML will create an extremely dangerous environment once the capping inversion is broke.

Last image is a new feature from the NWS SPC. It shows all the hodographs across the region. Notice how there are a lot of large looping hodographs and a decent amount that look like sickles. These large looping hodographs and the sickle hodographs mean the environment is supportive for large long-tracked and long-lived violent (EF4-EF5) tornadoes.

04/27/2026

****MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, LOWER OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-SOUTH****

**EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HIGH-END ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE, LONG-TRACKED, LONG-LIVED VIOLENT (EF4-EF5) TORNADOES NOW BEING OBSERVED**

Observed soundings and trajectory analysis confirm that a desert-origin elevated mixed layer has advected out of the Southwest and is now firmly established over a highly unstable warm sector. This is not a modeled signal but a verified, observed feature, with HYSPLIT trajectories and multiple soundings aligning to show steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading rich low-level moisture. That combination is producing a classic “loaded gun” profile, where early capping limits convective contamination, allowing instability to build efficiently ahead of initiation. As the cap weakens near the triple point and along any focused boundaries, rapid and explosive storm development becomes increasingly likely.

At the same time, the kinematic environment is equally concerning. Observed hodographs across the region show strong curvature and elongation, with extreme low-level shear, high storm-relative helicity, and favorable critical angles. Low LCL heights and a strengthening low-level jet further enhance the tornado potential by supporting efficient stretching and sustained inflow into developing supercells. SPC’s CIG2 designation explicitly stating that numerous long-track EF3+ tornadoes are expected reflects a high level of confidence not just in storm intensity, but also in storm coverage and longevity. This is a rare instance where both thermodynamic and kinematic parameters are simultaneously verifying at the upper end of the spectrum.

With minimal limiting factors currently evident, the primary concern shifts to storm mode and evolution. If storms can initiate in a relatively discrete fashion and remain semi-isolated before eventual upscale growth, the environment is capable of supporting long-lived, cyclic supercells. In that scenario, the parameter space strongly favors multiple long-track, significant tornadoes, with the potential for violent tornadoes (EF4-EF5) where mesoscale enhancements, such as boundary interactions or localized backing of surface winds, are maximized. Given the observed environment and ongoing trends, this setup bears clear similarities to past high-end outbreaks and warrants close monitoring for a possible upgrade to a High Risk.

01/31/2026

****BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC AND SOUTHEAST VA****

My bandwidth currently is stretched thin as I do not have the time to make a custom map forecast. Work has been crazy since last weeks storm. Can winter be over soon? After this storm, two more are lined up to impact the area this coming week. More on that in the days to come.

Two systems will begin to interact with each other tonight. Parent low is diving south out of the Great Lakes while the coastal low gets going off the NC coast. Tomorrow, these systems will merge. Blizzard conditions will be expected across southeast VA and eastern NC where 6-12+ inches of snow will be possible with 50mph to 60mph wind gusts. Inland into central NC, 4-8in of snow with 40mh wind gusts will be possible. Across the higher terrain of western NC and eastern TN, up to a foot of snow will be expected with 40mph to 50mph wind gusts.

4-8in of snow across northern SC and northeast GA. Portions of Southwest VA will also see 4-8in of snow with 40mph to 50mph wind gusts. Across central VA, 1-3in of snow with 40mph wind gusts will be possible. Farther south you go,higher the snow totals. 3-5in of snow and 40mph wind gusts along and south of Highway 58 into northern NC.h

01/25/2026

This sounding Brad shared will be talked about for a long time to come. Perfect textbook example of a strong CAD (Cold Air Damning) event. Man, we got so very lucky with the freezing air. Be very thankful that the cold air held out longer than expected. Pictures coming in from MS, TN, KY, and WVA are brutal.

This might be an all-time sounding around here, 55° at 3280', but it's 16° at ground level. Also the 180° shift in the wind within like 200' from northeast to southwest. For laymen, this is the weather balloon at 1pm from Greensboro, the sounding showing temperature with height. Super CAD here!

01/25/2026

****EVENING RADAR DISCUSSION****

Round 2 is well underway and if you look at radar, it shows that the bulk of this precip “should” be freezing rain. While southern tier counties in VA changed over, up along Highway 460 and points north the wedge of cold air is still winning. This is the most impressive over running situation I have ever seen in my life. I have never seen such a potent warm nose battling a deep arctic cold airmass such as the one in place. This event so far has been a war between the 2 air masses.

It is extremely impressive that the cold air is still staying entrenched with sleet falling. Some of you prayer warriors might have worked some magic here. If this holds, the ice event will be an underperformer for those living north of Highway 58. Some areas up near Highway 460 will still likely see some freezing rain mixed in but any significant accumulations/accretions will be confined to southern tier counties. After this line of precip works through, that’s it. Those living in extreme western VA and WVA might still see snow showers overnight but it will be light precip.