12/06/2026
Myth Buster No. 6: Expanding plantations can quickly and easily replace the wood sourced from native forests
In Australia, there has been a shift of wood supply from native forests to planted forests, while supply from native forests played a vital complementary goal. It is now argued that this shift should be, and can be, complete and immediate, and that is necessary to protect native forests (Lindenmayer 2024a, 2024b; ACBF 2025). This idea is simplistic and ignores the increasing national wood deficit and the well-known constraints experienced over the last three decades during the efforts to expand plantation forestry.
Serious constraints faced include access to suitable and affordable land and community opposition to land conversion from farming to forestry. Earlier projections by resource economists (e.g. Ajani 2007) that tightening wood supply from native forests would stimulate plantation expansion may have had some effects but not at the scale needed, despite a 75% reduction in wood harvests from native forests during the last two decades. Furthermore, softwood (generally from plantations) or hardwood (from native forests or from plantations) are necessary for specific products and markets, and wood quality is an important attribute that determines the product that can be made.
According to the ABARES (2023c) in 2022–23, the total national wood harvest was 25 million m3 valued at $1.35 billion. Native forest supplied 10% of this and the rest came from plantations. There were 1.82 million ha of plantations, comprising 1.06 million ha of softwood and 0.74 million ha of hardwood. Based on these reports and other sources, the current wood harvests, their sources, trends in supply and general suitability for commercial products can be summarised as follows:
Native forests: mostly managed using selective harvesting of regrowth after prior wildfires or harvesting produced about 2.5 million m3 of logs with the primary purpose of producing solid timber products. Typically, about 50% of the logs are useable as sawlogs with the remainder used for wood chip for pulp and paper products (ABARES 2024c). Log supply from native forests declined from 2011/12 to 2020/21 by 29%, but between these periods harvest from public forests was 23% below the sustainable yield level (ABARES 2023c, 2024h).
These reductions are mainly due to the transfer of multiple-use forests to conservation tenures, the loss of timber resources to wildfire, and increasing environmental restrictions on harvesting. Further reductions in national average annual sustainable yield after the 2020/21 period will be the result of Western Australian and Victorian governments’ decisions to cease the harvest of public native forests. The economic impacts of reduced domestic hardwood supply in terms of loss of capital value of plant and equipment, loss of equipment in contracting and manufacturing, the cost of public subsidies for exit programs, and the costs of increased import or substitution effects are not well known, but likely to be very high. For example, a recent estimate of the costs of closing the industry in Victoria was approximately $1.5 billion during the first year (https://www.timberbiz.com.au/shutting- victorias-native-forestry-cost-taxpayers-1-5b/).
The ACBF 2025 proposal to source all wood from plantations does not recognise the significant use of native forest timber for internal and external appearance products, furniture, structural products, utility poles and piles that cannot be replaced by existing plantations, and that of products dependent upon the colour, special features, durability and hardness of native forest timber (Tasmanian Forestry Hub 2024). As an example, it is estimated that about 11 million hardwood utility poles are in use, most sourced from native forests for their quality (Wood Central 23 July 2025a). Assuming 50 years average life of a pole, about 200,000 of them require replacement annually. Uncertainty in supply from traditional sources is leading to the use of alternative materials that cost more and are emissions-intensive, non- renewable and difficult to recycle and to dispose of (Wood Central, 31 August 2024).
Hardwood plantations: managed on rotations of 10–15 years and predominantly Blue Gum (Eucalyptus globulus). They produced 8.5 million m3 of wood in 2022/23, with 90–95% exported as wood chips. About 5–6% of the hardwood plantations are Shining Gum (E. nitens), largely confined to Tasmania, a small proportion of which are managed on a 25-year rotation for solid wood products.
From 2000/01–2022/23 the area of hardwood plantations declined from 0.97 to 0.74 million ha, but production (mostly chip wood) increased from 6.97 to 8.49 million m3 (ABARES 2024c). Currently, Australia has only small areas with an appropriate species and management regime (long rotation with thinning and/or pruning) to produce older/larger logs suitable for solid wood products (sawn timber, veneer). Other than NSW high-quality hardwood logs from public plantations have been infrequent and very small in volume. NSW has averaged 27 000 cubic metres annually between 1993/94 and 2020/21 (ABARES 2024h). The plantation hardwood resource as it currently exists cannot replace native forest for solid wood products, although it can augment it for certain products. Technological innovation could allow utilisation of some of the wood harvest for higher value engineered products (Wood Central 25 February 2026), if commercially viable.
Softwood plantations: predominantly Pinus species, grown over a 25–30-year rotation, supply approximately 14.0 million m3 per annum of logs used for a wide range of solid and engineered wood products, paper and packaging. About 55–65% of the total volume of logs from managed softwood plantations is converted to sawn timber and veneer, with the rest largely used as chip wood for paper, boards and other products.
ABARES data over 21 years (2000/01–2022/23) show that the area under softwood plantations has remained static, with a mean of 1.2 million ha. The total volume harvested annually ranged from 12.7 million m3 to 17.2 million m3 with no reliable trend over time and with a mean of 14.6 million m3. Data for the 12 year period 2011-12 to 2022-23 is shown in Figure 4. The annual harvested sawlog productivity over the long-term and across the entire Australian estate ranged from 9.6 to 17.0 m3 ha−1 y−1. There appears to be no consistent trend in productivity, beyond the annual fluctuations, over time.
The increasing wood and wood products deficit: Australia’s dependency on imports of forest products is increasing (FWPA 2024; ABARES 2025a). A recent detailed industry analysis (FWPA 2025) found that reduced access to native forests during the last 10–15 years has led to:
● A 4.7% annual increase in import of wood products. Imports of hardwood from Asia (mainly China, Indonesia and Malaysia) have increased by 5.6% per year. In 2023–24, 62% of wood imports came from Asia.
● A large increase in imports of Engineered Wood Products which have a higher carbon footprint than Australian hardwood (Ximenes et al. 2016).
● A 16% per year increase in the use of steel framing, construction steel and components all of which have higher carbon footprints than equivalent wood components.
During 2023/24, the import of sawn wood was 974 000 m3, wood panels 1.03 million m3 and paper and paper board 1.37 million tonnes. Dressed softwood alone was 561 000 m3, costing $347 million. The total cost of imported wood products was $6.5 billion compared to exports valued at $2.7 billion (mostly wood chip) during the same period (ABARES 2024g). The net trade deficit in wood products has increased over time and will increase further during the following decades.
A recent study (FWPA 2024) estimated that Australia needs to build about 2.5 million new houses by 2034 to keep pace with population growth and to address the legacy of unmet demand over many years. The study concluded that this demand will result in increasing annual shortages of sawn structural timber which currently can only be met from imports. ABARES (2025a) reached a similar conclusion. ABARES also forecast an increase in softwood harvest from the 15.5 million m3 in 2025–29 to 23 million m3 in 2050–2054. This projection is likely unrealistic and questionable because it is based on plantations re-established after the 2019–2020 fires, assumptions of expanding areas of new plantations which is not happening at sufficient scale and significant uncertainties around future productivity improvements.
Prospects for plantation expansion: There have been several major Commonwealth government policy initiatives and investments over the last 30 years aimed at promoting wood supply from plantation forests on farmland. The Managed Investment Schemes (MIS) in the 1990s and early 2000s led to the expansion of short rotation eucalypts plantations (mainly blue gum) but some 20–25% of that estate has suffered low productivity and commercial viability. In limited cases, these areas have been replanted with pines, but most have been converted back to agriculture, resulting in a net loss of 230,000 ha in total area. A current government subsidy program nationally to stimulate the expansion of long-rotation plantations and to generate carbon credits have so far led to an increase of less than 5% to the total pine plantation area (Groenhout and Wilson 2025).
Reliance entirely on plantation wood supply carries high risk because plantations are grown in concentrated locations and are vulnerable to wildfire, drought, pests and diseases. For example, 92,000 ha of planation were burnt in the 2019/2020 bushfires in NSW and Victoria (Davey and Sarre 2020), causing major impacts on industries and markets. Plantation forestry sites are prone to recurring long periods of drought, posing significant threats to wood production, as illustrated by the current concerns in the Green Triangle region (ABC News 2025) and experienced regularly in the past. Restrictions on water allocations is already limiting plantation replanting in the northern parts of Green Triangle. The well-known challenges in expanding productive plantations (high land costs, regulations, management costs and risks especially from fire over long rotations) are largely ignored in the prospectus presented by the ACBF 2024 in their call for banning native forest harvesting.
There are good reasons for expanding the plantation forestry-based sector nationally and for continuing the efforts towards that goal as part of diversified wood supply policy. That is not a reason to ban all harvest from native forests. Australia’s dependence on wood product imports is increasing, as our log supply is nearly static while demands are increasing with rapidly growing population and urgent demand for new housing. A modest increase in wood harvest from sustainably managed native forests will help alleviate this situation and we can do so sustainably (Raison and Nambiar 2024).
Source: R. J. Raison, E. K. S. Nambiar, G. A. Kile & L. J. Bren (27 May 2026): Australia’s native forests can be sustainably managed for wood production together with other important forest values, Australian Forestry, DOI: 10.1080/00049158.2026.2663997
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/udeiimzwk2jyban3y8ynu/Australia-s-native-forests-can-be-sustainably-managed-for-wood-production-together-with-other-important-forest-values.-Raison-Nambiar-Kile-and-Bren.-May-2026..pdf?rlkey=jokeryyy8dyroevfg7hdt3sff&dl=0