11/04/2024
Lets look at a scenario of a victorious Trump.
To understand it might require a single number: 28. That’s the percentage of Americans who tell pollsters they believe the country is on the right track. A measly 28%. In that environment, incumbent parties lose. And, for all the drama and buzz of her swift installation as candidate, her positioning as the face of change, Harris is a member of the incumbent party and a senior figure in the current US government. A nation that made clear long ago that it wanted to fire Joe Biden, largely over the cost of living and rising prices, as well as immigration, was bound to seize the chance to do the next best thing – and reject his deputy.
We don’t yet know whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will prevail in Tuesday’s contest – but when we do, it won’t feel hard to explain, says Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland