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Squirrel and Potato Lady Storm Chasing, Alvarado, TX (2026)

11/04/2026

🌩️ MORNING CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK — WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2026 🌩️

Good Wednesday morning, everyone! 🐿️⛈️

The severe-weather threat has shifted farther east into the Southeast, where portions of the Tennessee Valley, northern Alabama, Georgia, and the southern Appalachians will need to keep an eye on conditions today.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. While widespread severe weather is not expected, isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible.

The biggest concern today is the combination of abundant low-level moisture and stronger winds near the surface. Even though cloud cover and limited atmospheric instability should keep storms from becoming particularly strong or long-lived, a few could briefly become organized enough to produce severe weather.

Let's take a closer look.

🌩️ DAY 1 — WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 4
MARGINAL RISK — LEVEL 1 OF 5
Southeast into the Southern Appalachians

A mature storm system is centered across the Upper Midwest this morning, with a cold front extending southward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley.

As this front continues moving eastward, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of it. The greatest coverage of thunderstorms is anticipated from central and eastern Kentucky through Middle and Eastern Tennessee, northern Alabama, and Georgia.

A moist air mass remains in place ahead of the front, with dewpoints in the middle 60s reaching into western Kentucky. This moisture will help support thunderstorms throughout the region.

However, widespread cloud cover and poor atmospheric lapse rates will limit instability. Forecast instability is around 1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE, which is enough to support thunderstorms but may limit how strong and long-lived they become.

There will still be moderate to strong wind shear near the surface, which could allow a few storms to briefly organize and rotate.

Primary threats:
- 🌪️ Brief tornadoes: A low-probability tornado threat exists with storms along the cold front and within the area ahead of it. The greatest concern appears to be across northeast Alabama into northern Georgia, where stronger southeasterly surface winds could increase the potential for rotation.
- 💨 Damaging wind gusts: A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts, particularly where stronger downdrafts develop.
- ⛈️ Strong thunderstorms: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Southeast, with the greatest storm coverage expected from Kentucky through Tennessee and into Alabama and Georgia.
⚠️ Areas to watch
Northeast Alabama into Northern Georgia

This area deserves particular attention today. Stronger southeasterly surface winds and favorable low-level wind shear could support a brief tornado with one or two stronger storms.

Middle and Eastern Tennessee

Thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the approaching cold front. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

Southern Appalachians

Showers and thunderstorms will continue moving through the region. A few stronger storms could produce gusty winds, with an isolated severe-weather event possible.

Timing: Thunderstorms are expected throughout the day as the cold front advances eastward. The SPC discussion highlights the potential for storms along the front and in the prefrontal environment, but does not specify a narrower severe-weather timing window.

📢 THE BOTTOM LINE
Today's severe-weather threat is relatively limited, but there is still a reason to stay weather aware across parts of the Southeast.

The Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) means isolated severe storms are possible, not that widespread severe weather is expected.

The main concerns are isolated damaging wind gusts and a low-probability chance of a brief tornado, particularly from northeast Alabama into northern Georgia.

Cloud cover and limited instability should keep the overall storm intensity in check, but stronger low-level wind shear means a few storms could still briefly become dangerous.
🛑 SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY
- Keep multiple ways to receive weather warnings, especially if thunderstorms continue into the evening or overnight.
- Know where your safe shelter is before storms arrive.
- If a tornado warning is issued, move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows.
- Mobile homes are not safe shelters during tornado warnings. Move to a sturdy building well ahead of the storm.
- Never drive through flooded roadways.
Even a Marginal Risk can produce dangerous weather. Don't let a lower risk category give you a false sense of security.

🐿️ Stay squirrelly, stay storm-ready, and as always, stay weather aware! ⛈️

11/03/2026

🌩️ MORNING CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK — TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2026 🌩️

Good Tuesday morning, everyone! 🐿️⛈️

Our severe-weather setup is winding down compared to yesterday, but portions of the Mississippi Valley and eastern Texas still need to keep an eye on the weather today.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms extending from the Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Texas.

A few storms could produce isolated damaging wind gusts, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The greatest concern appears to be across eastern Arkansas and northern Louisiana, where stronger wind shear and moisture will overlap.

Let's break down today's outlook and what we're expecting for Wednesday.

🌩️ DAY 1 — TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3
MARGINAL RISK — LEVEL 1 OF 5
Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley into East Texas

A developing storm system across the central Plains will continue moving northeastward today, dragging a cold front southeastward across the region.

Ahead of this boundary, moisture will remain in place, with low- to mid-60s dewpoints spreading northward through the Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms already occurring this morning are expected to weaken through midday, but additional development or strengthening is possible by mid to late afternoon as the cold front approaches.

However, there are some factors that should limit how intense these storms become.

Extensive cloud cover and relatively warm temperatures in the middle levels of the atmosphere will limit instability. Forecast guidance suggests only modest atmospheric energy, generally around 500–1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This should favor weaker convection overall and reduce the potential for widespread severe storms.

That said, strong wind shear will still be present. Deep-layer shear around 40–50 knots, combined with changing wind direction near the surface, could help some stronger storms and line segments become organized.

Primary threats:
- 💨 Damaging wind gusts: Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible, particularly with stronger storm segments.
- 🌪️ Brief tornadoes: A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially where stronger low-level wind shear overlaps with available moisture and instability.
- ⛈️ Organized thunderstorms: Storms are expected to favor broken bands or lines rather than widespread discrete supercells.
⚠️ Areas to watch
Eastern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana

This area appears to have the greatest potential for stronger storms today. The combination of forcing from the approaching cold front, stronger wind shear, and somewhat better low-level moisture may support isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado.

Mid-Mississippi Valley — Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois

Very strong low-level wind shear will remain in place ahead of the developing surface low. Forecast soundings indicate substantial low-level rotation potential, but poor atmospheric lapse rates and limited surface-based instability will make it difficult for storms to become strong.

Even so, the strong wind environment could support a localized, brief severe-weather threat, including an isolated damaging wind gust or tornado.

East Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley

Thunderstorms may redevelop or intensify this afternoon as the cold front approaches. While instability is expected to remain limited, stronger cells or line segments could still produce isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado.

Timing: Thunderstorm activity is expected to weaken through midday, with renewed development or strengthening possible during the mid to late afternoon and continuing into the evening.

🌤️ DAY 2 — WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 4
NO SEVERE RISK AREAS FORECAST
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.

The current storm system will continue moving into the Upper Great Lakes, while the associated surface boundary weakens across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

Scattered thunderstorms are still expected during the day, particularly from Kentucky southward into Alabama and Georgia. However, poor atmospheric lapse rates should limit the potential for stronger storms.

A warm front will lift across eastern Alabama into western Georgia, where a few stronger thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Even there, the overall environment currently appears unfavorable for organized severe weather.

The bottom line for Wednesday:
- Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast.
- A few stronger storms may develop near the warm front.
- Poor instability and weak lapse rates should limit storm intensity.
- The SPC is forecasting no severe thunderstorm risk areas for Wednesday.

📢 THE BOTTOM LINE
Today's severe-weather threat is considerably lower than what we experienced across the Plains yesterday, but that doesn't mean we can completely let our guard down.

The Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) stretches from the Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Texas. Isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two remain possible, with eastern Arkansas and northern Louisiana appearing to have the more favorable environment.

By Wednesday, the severe-weather threat is expected to diminish further. Scattered thunderstorms will still be possible across parts of the Southeast, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
🛑 SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY
- Keep multiple ways to receive weather warnings, especially if storms are expected overnight.
- Know your safe shelter location before storms arrive.
- If a tornado warning is issued, move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows.
- Mobile homes are not safe shelters during tornado warnings. Move to a sturdy building well ahead of the storm.
- Never drive through flooded roadways.
Even a Marginal Risk can produce dangerous weather. Don't focus only on the risk category — stay aware of changing conditions and heed all local warnings.

🐿️ Stay squirrelly, stay storm-ready, and as always, stay weather aware! ⛈️

11/02/2026

🌩️ MORNING CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK — MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2026 🌩️

Good Monday morning, everyone! 🐿️⛈️

We're starting the week with a significant severe-weather setup across portions of the southern and central Plains. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed parts of north-central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas under an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today.

Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible, with the greatest tornado concern focused on the Oklahoma-Kansas region. The threat will develop this afternoon and continue into tonight, with some storms potentially lasting into the early morning hours Tuesday.

Let's break down what's ahead.

🌪️ DAY 1 — MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2
ENHANCED RISK — LEVEL 3 OF 5
North-central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas

This is the primary area of concern today. A powerful upper-level disturbance moving out of the Four Corners region will interact with a warm, moist, and unstable air mass across the Plains.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are already ongoing this morning from the eastern Texas Panhandle through central Kansas. As these storms move northeastward, some clearing and filtered sunshine behind them may allow temperatures to climb enough to destabilize the atmosphere.

By this afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of south-central Kansas and western Oklahoma.

The primary threats include:
- 🌪️ Tornadoes: A few tornadoes are possible, with the greatest potential from north-central Oklahoma into south-central Kansas. Any storms that remain discrete supercells could become more favorable for rotation as low-level wind shear strengthens this evening.
- 💨 Damaging winds: Severe wind gusts are possible, especially as storms grow into larger clusters and lines.
- 🧊 Large hail: Hail will be possible, particularly with the initial development of stronger supercells.
Storm development may initially be slow to organize, but conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for rotating storms around the evening hours.

Timing: Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon, with the severe threat continuing through the evening and overnight. The threat could persist into early Tuesday morning across portions of western Missouri and near the Oklahoma-Arkansas border.
⚠️ Additional severe-weather concerns
North Texas into the Texas Hill Country

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening.

While the strongest upper-level support will be farther north, there should still be enough wind shear to support organized thunderstorms.

The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts as storms merge into a line and move eastward. Large hail may occur during the early stages of storm development, and a few tornadoes embedded within the line cannot be ruled out, particularly across north-central Texas.

Florida Peninsula

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the peninsula today. The overall severe-weather threat is limited because instability and wind shear are relatively weak.

However, the abundant low-level moisture and stronger low-level winds could support an isolated brief tornado. The SPC considers this possibility low enough that no tornado probability area has been included.

🌩️ DAY 2 — TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3
MARGINAL RISK — LEVEL 1 OF 5
Far eastern Texas and central Louisiana northeastward into southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois

The upper-level system responsible for today's severe-weather activity will continue moving eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday.

A frontal boundary will extend from Iowa and Missouri southward toward the Sabine Valley, providing a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms.

Moisture will remain plentiful, with mid-60s dewpoints reaching as far north as the Missouri Bootheel. Strong southerly winds in the lower atmosphere will help transport that moisture northward.

However, widespread cloud cover, ongoing rain, and limited atmospheric instability should keep the overall severe-weather potential more limited than Monday.

The primary threats include:
- 💨 Damaging wind gusts: A few storms could produce isolated severe wind gusts.
- 🌪️ Brief tornadoes: A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially with storms interacting with the frontal boundary or developing ahead of it.
- ⛈️ Strong thunderstorms: Scattered storms are expected from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys northward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Timing: Storms will be ongoing in some areas early Tuesday, with additional development and an increase in storm intensity possible during the afternoon. Activity may continue into the evening and overnight farther north and east.

📢 THE BOTTOM LINE
Monday is the day to keep a particularly close eye on the weather across the southern and central Plains.

The Enhanced Risk across north-central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas means conditions will support more organized severe thunderstorms, including supercells capable of producing tornadoes. North Texas also needs to pay attention, especially during the late afternoon and evening, when damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes will be possible.

Tuesday's threat shifts eastward into parts of the lower and middle Mississippi Valley. While the overall risk is lower, isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado remain possible.
🛑 SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY
- Have multiple ways to receive warnings, including overnight alerts.
- Know where your safe shelter is before storms arrive.
- If a tornado warning is issued, move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows.
- Mobile homes are not safe shelters during tornado warnings. Move to a sturdy, designated shelter well ahead of the storm.
- Do not wait until a storm is on top of you to make a safety decision.
Remember, severe weather can change quickly. Stay alert, stay prepared, and always follow official NWS warnings.

🐿️ Stay squirrelly, stay storm-ready, and as always, stay weather aware! ⛈️

10/28/2026

For whatever reason, Facebook decided to update their posting abilities to where you are now limited on links you can use per month. Unfortunately, now because of this, yesterday and today will not have the morning reports. It is still available on our YouTube channel under posts, if you still want to see what the day is going to look like. Will try to get this situated soon, hopefully. Hope everyone has a wonderful day.

10/26/2026

🌩️ MORNING CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK — MONDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2026 🌩️

Good Monday morning, everyone! 🐿️⛈️

We’re starting the week with a relatively quiet severe-weather forecast across the United States. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has no severe thunderstorm risk areas outlined for today or Tuesday. However, a few thunderstorms could still develop across Far West Texas this afternoon, and one or two stronger storms could produce hail.

Let’s break down what we’re watching today and what to expect heading into Tuesday!

🌩️ DAY 1 — MONDAY, OCTOBER 26
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AREAS FORECAST

📍 Area to watch: Far West Texas, particularly between El Paso and Midland.

A persistent upper-level trough over the southwestern United States is gradually lifting northeastward. Meanwhile, another weak disturbance moving out of northern Mexico is expected to approach Far West Texas late this afternoon.

That disturbance could help trigger scattered thunderstorms, even though the overall atmospheric setup is a little weaker than yesterday.
⛈️ What could develop?
- 🌧️ Scattered thunderstorms: Storms may develop across Far West Texas later this afternoon.
- 🧊 Hail: One or two stronger storms could produce hail.
- 🌬️ Strong wind gusts: Stronger storms are possible, but the SPC outlook does not identify an organized severe-weather threat.
- 🌪️ Tornado threat: No organized tornado threat is highlighted in today's outlook.
The SPC is maintaining severe-weather probabilities below 5%, meaning organized severe thunderstorms are not expected. Still, an isolated stronger storm cannot be completely ruled out.

Today's bottom line: Most areas should remain outside any organized severe-weather threat. If thunderstorms develop between El Paso and Midland, keep an eye on them for the possibility of hail.

🌦️ DAY 2 — TUESDAY, OCTOBER 27
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AREAS FORECAST

📍 Areas to monitor: Parts of Texas, particularly central and southern Texas, where isolated thunderstorms may be more likely.

Several upper-level disturbances are expected to move across the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, southern Plains, and toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday.

Moisture across much of the Plains and Midwest will remain fairly modest, with dewpoints generally in the 50s. Higher dewpoints in the 60s are expected to remain concentrated across central and southern Texas.

Although stronger winds aloft will be present farther north, warmer air in the middle levels of the atmosphere should limit the amount of instability available for thunderstorms across much of the Midwest and portions of the Plains.
🌩️ What does that mean for Tuesday?
- 🌧️ Isolated thunderstorms: These are more likely across parts of Texas, where daytime heating and somewhat better moisture may help storms develop.
- 🧊 Hail: No significant hail threat is highlighted, and widespread severe hail is not expected.
- 🌬️ Damaging winds: The overall severe-weather threat remains low.
- 🌪️ Tornadoes: The SPC is not forecasting a defined severe-weather risk area.
Even where thunderstorms develop, modest wind shear and limited large-scale support should make it difficult for storms to become organized or sustain severe intensity.

Tuesday's bottom line: Severe thunderstorms are unlikely. Parts of Texas may see isolated storms, but the overall setup does not currently support an organized severe-weather threat.

📢 THE BOTTOM LINE
🌤️ Monday: No severe thunderstorm risk areas are forecast. A few stronger storms could develop across Far West Texas between El Paso and Midland, with hail possible.

⛈️ Tuesday: No severe thunderstorm risk areas are forecast. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across parts of Texas, but widespread or organized severe weather is unlikely.

Remember, no severe-weather risk area does not mean no thunderstorms. Conditions can change, so keep up with your local forecast and any warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
🛑 WEATHER SAFETY REMINDERS
- 📱 Keep weather alerts enabled, especially if thunderstorms are in your area.
- 🧊 If hail begins, get indoors and keep away from windows.
- 🚗 Never drive through flooded roadways, even if the water looks shallow.
- 🌪️ If a tornado warning is issued, seek shelter in a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows.
- 🏠 If you live in a mobile home, identify a sturdy nearby shelter ahead of time.
We'll continue watching the weather as the week progresses and share updates if the forecast changes.

🌀 SQUIRREL & POTATO LADY STORM CHASING 🌀

Bringing you weather updates, storm awareness, and storm-chasing coverage while helping everyone stay informed and prepared.

📘 Facebook: Squirrel & Potato Lady Storm Chasing
▶️ YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/
💰 CashApp: https://cash.app/$SPLStormChasing
❤️ GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/squirrel-potato-lady-storm-chasing-help-fund-the-chase

Every bit of support helps keep us out there chasing, documenting, and bringing severe-weather information to you. Thank you for being part of the team! ❤️

🐿️ Stay squirrelly, stay storm-ready, and as always, stay weather aware! ⛈️

10/25/2026

🌩️ MORNING CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK — SUNDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2026 🌩️

Good Sunday morning, everyone! 🐿️⛈️

We’re keeping our eyes on parts of New Mexico and Far West Texas today, where a few strong to severe thunderstorms could develop this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) in place for isolated severe weather. While coverage is expected to remain limited, a few storms could pack a punch!

Let’s break down what we’re watching today and what may be ahead for Monday.

🌪️ DAY 1 — SUNDAY, OCTOBER 25
MARGINAL RISK — LEVEL 1 OF 5

📍 Areas to watch: Parts of central and eastern New Mexico, Far West Texas, and the western Texas Panhandle.

The larger upper-level storm system remains positioned over Arizona, sending southwesterly winds across New Mexico and West Texas. An additional disturbance moving out of northern Mexico is expected to reach eastern New Mexico by early evening, helping provide the lift needed for scattered thunderstorms to develop.

Three areas deserve particular attention today:
🌩️ 1. Central New Mexico
A pocket of colder air in the middle levels of the atmosphere will interact with lingering low-level moisture. This could help a few storms become strong late this afternoon.

🧊 Primary concern: Hail, with the potential for severe-sized hail remaining uncertain.
⛈️ 2. Southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas
Daytime heating will help destabilize the atmosphere, with forecast instability reaching around 2,000 J/kg of MUCAPE in some areas. That could support stronger thunderstorms if storms can develop and persist.

🌬️ Main threats:
- Hail, potentially large hail in the strongest storms.
- Gusty winds, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible.
Storm coverage is expected to remain limited, which is why the SPC has not upgraded this area to a Slight Risk.
🌪️ 3. East-Central New Mexico into West Texas
This area could become especially interesting early this evening, where a boundary is expected to extend from east-central New Mexico into West Texas, roughly east of Albuquerque toward the Dalhart area.

Some forecast models indicate that one or two stronger storms could track along this boundary. If they develop and maintain their organization, supercell thunderstorms may be possible.

⚠️ Potential hazards include:
- Large hail.
- A tornado or two.
- Isolated severe weather from storms that remain organized.
The tornado potential is conditional on how storms develop and interact with the boundary. Not every storm will become severe, but any persistent, organized storm in this corridor deserves close attention.
⏰ When should you pay attention?
The greatest concern is during the afternoon and evening hours, as daytime heating combines with the approaching disturbance. Conditions will vary by location, and not every area will see thunderstorms.

Sunday's bottom line: The overall threat is limited, but isolated severe storms remain possible across parts of New Mexico and Far West Texas. Hail is a primary concern, with a tornado or two possible near the boundary and isolated damaging winds possible farther south.

🌦️ DAY 2 — MONDAY, OCTOBER 26
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AREAS FORECAST

📍 Areas where thunderstorms may develop: Southwestern Texas, southern and eastern New Mexico, portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, and far southwestern Kansas.

The SPC is not forecasting a defined severe-weather risk area for Monday. However, a few thunderstorms may still develop late in the afternoon and evening.

Moisture returning northward ahead of a cold front, along with modest atmospheric instability, could support isolated storms. Some storms may briefly become organized, but weaker mid-level winds and warmer air aloft are expected to limit their ability to strengthen.

🌩️ What could happen Monday?
- Isolated thunderstorms may develop.
- The strongest storms could produce small hail.
- Overall severe-weather potential is expected to remain low.
There is no Marginal Risk or higher severe-weather category forecast for Monday at this time.

Monday's bottom line: A few thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains and nearby areas, but the overall severe threat is expected to remain limited.

📢 THE BOTTOM LINE
🐿️ Sunday: Marginal Risk for parts of central/eastern New Mexico, Far West Texas, and the western Texas Panhandle. Isolated large hail is possible, along with a tornado or two and isolated damaging wind gusts in the areas described above.

🌤️ Monday: No organized severe-weather risk area is forecast. A few thunderstorms could develop, with small hail possible in the strongest storms.

Even when the overall risk is low, it only takes one storm to create dangerous conditions. Stay informed and be ready to act if warnings are issued for your location.
🛑 SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY REMINDERS
- 📱 Keep weather alerts enabled and have a reliable way to receive warnings, especially during the evening.
- 🌪️ If a tornado warning is issued for your location, move to a basement or a small interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows.
- 🏠 If you live in a mobile home, identify a sturdy nearby shelter before storms arrive.
- 🚗 Avoid driving into heavy rain or hail, and never attempt to cross a flooded roadway.
- 📡 Monitor official National Weather Service updates as conditions evolve.
Stay weather-aware, keep your plans flexible, and don't let a quiet-looking sky catch you off guard!

🌀 SQUIRREL & POTATO LADY STORM CHASING 🌀

Bringing you weather updates, storm awareness, and storm-chasing coverage while helping everyone stay informed and prepared.

📘 Facebook: Squirrel & Potato Lady Storm Chasing
▶️ YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/
💰 CashApp: https://cash.app/$SPLStormChasing
❤️ GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/squirrel-potato-lady-storm-chasing-help-fund-the-chase

Every bit of support helps keep us out there chasing, documenting, and bringing severe-weather information to you. Thank you for being part of the team! ❤️

🐿️ Stay squirrelly, stay storm-ready, and as always, stay weather aware! ⛈️

10/24/2026

🌩️ MORNING CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK — SATURDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2026 🌩️
Good Saturday morning, storm watchers! 🐿️⛈️
We're keeping our eyes on the Southwest as another round of potentially severe thunderstorms develops today. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) across parts of New Mexico and far West Texas this afternoon and evening.
Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a possible tornado are the primary concerns. Storms may develop across central and northern New Mexico earlier in the day, with additional afternoon development farther south into southern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos region of Texas.
And the threat doesn't end today! Sunday's outlook maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across parts of southern and eastern New Mexico and southwest Texas, where isolated severe storms may produce hail.
Let's break it down!

🚨 DAY 1 — SATURDAY, OCTOBER 24

Slight Risk — Level 2 of 5
Parts of New Mexico and far West Texas
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, with large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat.

🌵 Central and Northern New Mexico
A strong upper-level low remains near southwestern Arizona, while another disturbance moving across northern Mexico is expected to track northeastward into southern New Mexico and West Texas.
This system will help encourage thunderstorm development across the region.
Scattered thunderstorms may occur through the day across central and northern New Mexico. Cooler air aloft and pockets of daytime heating could provide enough instability for some stronger storms.
Primary concerns:
- 🧊 Hail: Stronger storms may produce hail, potentially reaching severe limits.
- 💨 Wind: Gusty winds are possible, although the severe threat may decrease as storms move northeastward into a less favorable environment by early evening.
🌩️ Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas
This is another important area to monitor today.
More sunshine and daytime heating are expected across southern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos region of Texas, with temperatures climbing into the 80s. Storm development is expected to become more likely during the afternoon, particularly after approximately 1:00 PM CDT.
Strengthening southeasterly winds near the surface, combined with favorable wind shear through the atmosphere, could support organized supercell thunderstorms.
Here's what we're watching:
- 🧊 Large hail: A primary concern with sustained, organized storms.
- 💨 Damaging winds: Strong gusts are possible, especially where daytime heating is greatest.
- 🌪️ Tornadoes: A tornado or two is possible if individual storms remain separated and organized long enough to take advantage of favorable low-level wind shear.
Supercells are rotating thunderstorms that can produce large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The environment today may support this type of storm, so residents should take changing conditions seriously.
🕒 Timing for Today
Morning: Scattered storms may continue or develop across central and northern New Mexico.
Afternoon: Additional storms are expected, particularly across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as heating increases. This is when the severe threat becomes more concerning.
Afternoon into evening: Large hail, damaging winds, and a possible tornado are the main hazards to watch.
Tonight: The overall severe threat should begin weakening after approximately 8:00 PM CDT as nighttime cooling reduces instability, although the timing may vary by location.

🌦️ DAY 2 — SUNDAY, OCTOBER 25

Marginal Risk — Level 1 of 5
Parts of southern and eastern New Mexico and southwest Texas
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible, with hail as the main concern.

🌵 Southern and Eastern New Mexico into Southwest Texas
The upper-level system will gradually weaken and move northeastward, but strong southwesterly winds aloft will remain across portions of the southern Rocky Mountains and adjacent High Plains.
A stalled surface boundary extending from central New Mexico toward the central Plains will help maintain modest moisture across the region.
Cloud cover and the possibility of showers or thunderstorms early Sunday introduce some uncertainty about how much the atmosphere will warm and destabilize during the afternoon.
Even so, some instability is expected, and winds changing direction and increasing in speed with height may support organized storms.
Potential threats:
- 🧊 Hail: The main concern with the strongest thunderstorms.
- 💨 Strong winds: Possible with stronger storms, although the outlook emphasizes hail as the primary threat.
- 🌪️ Tornadoes: The supplied Sunday outlook does not specifically highlight a tornado threat, so hail remains the main hazard to monitor.
Cool temperatures in the middle levels of the atmosphere and favorable storm wind profiles could allow a few storms to become organized enough to produce isolated severe hail.
🕒 Timing for Sunday
Thunderstorms may develop during the day, with daytime heating helping determine how strong they become. The coverage and intensity will depend partly on how much cloud cover and early precipitation limit warming.
The overall threat is expected to be more isolated than Saturday's activity, but residents across the highlighted risk area should continue monitoring forecast updates.

📢 THE BOTTOM LINE
🚨 Saturday: A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) covers parts of New Mexico and far West Texas. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible this afternoon and evening.
🧊 Hail threat: A major concern with organized storms today, with isolated severe hail possible again Sunday.
💨 Wind threat: Damaging gusts are possible today, particularly across southern New Mexico and far West Texas.
🌪️ Tornado threat: A tornado or two is possible today if storms remain discrete and the favorable low-level wind shear can be utilized.
🌦️ Sunday: A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) covers portions of southern and eastern New Mexico and southwest Texas. Isolated severe storms may develop, with hail as the primary concern.
🛑 Severe Weather Safety
- Keep your phone's emergency alerts enabled and monitor official watches and warnings.
- Identify a sturdy indoor shelter before storms develop.
- If a tornado warning is issued, move to an interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows.
- If you live in a mobile home, arrange access to a sturdy nearby shelter ahead of time.
- When large hail threatens, get inside a substantial building or hard-topped vehicle. Avoid sheltering under trees.
Don't wait for the storm to arrive before preparing. Severe thunderstorms can intensify quickly, and a tornado can occur even when tornadoes are not the primary forecast threat.
We'll continue watching the Southwest as this system moves through. Share this outlook with friends and family in the affected areas, and stay ready for updated forecasts throughout the weekend!

🌀 SQUIRREL & POTATO LADY STORM CHASING 🌀
📘 Facebook: Squirrel & Potato Lady Storm Chasing
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💰 CashApp: $SPLStormChasing
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Every bit of support helps keep us out there chasing, documenting, and bringing severe weather information to you! Thank you for following along and supporting our weather coverage. ❤️
Stay squirrelly, stay storm-ready, and as always, stay weather aware! 🐿️⛈️

Squirrel and Potato Lady Storm Chasing

11/04/2026

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