15/01/2026
Is damaging hail getting worse? The answer is more complex than you might think! A new study published in Nature Geoscience by ESSL presents the first comprehensive global analysis of very large hail (≥5 cm) in a changing climate.
Key findings:
- Very large hail is modelled to occur most frequently in South America, the United States, and South Africa.
- Europe shows the strongest increase in very large hail frequency, especially in recent years.
- Parts of the Southern Hemisphere show declining trends.
- Changes in the atmospheric instability in the cold part of the storm, correlating with changes in near-surface atmospheric moisture, are primary drivers of these regional differences.
- Hail-related losses have increased in Europe, the United States and along coastal Australia.
Rising economic losses are caused by a combination of meteorological and socio-economic factors. In Europe, the more frequent occurrence of hail events contributes to the increase in losses, while in the United States and Australia, increasing exposure and vulnerability play a more dominant role.
The study was led by the European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL) in collaboration with Adam Mickiewicz University (Poznań) and Munich Re.
Publication: Battaglioli et al. (2026), “Contrasting trends in very large hail events and related economic losses across the globe”, Nature Geoscience: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-025-01868-0
